Modeling the links beteween land-use patterns and social complexity in the Tolima region (Colombia)

Authors and Affiliations: 

Zúñiga – Upegui, P. (1,2), Arnaiz-Schmitz, C. (1), Schmitz, M. F. (3), López – Santiago, C. (1)

(1) Social-Ecological Systems Laboratory, Department of Ecology, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid (Spain)
(2) Grupo de Investigación en Zoología, Universidad del Tolima (Colombia)
(3) Department of Ecology, Universidad Complutense de Madrid (Spain)

Corresponding author: 
Pamela Zúñiga Upegui
Abstract: 

The age of the Anthropocene is characterized by planet cycles modifications and natural systems overwhelming. Current theory on land use change recognizes that there are multi-scalar processes that vary according to the biophysical and socioeconomic contexts of each place. The Andean region in Colombia is a highly diverse region that historically has maintained a high human presence associated to the development of multiple productive activities. The main objective of the present work is to describe the regional relationship between the different typologies of landscape and the socioeconomic structure through multivariate analysis. We search for significant social variables that allow the formalization of human relations with land use and serve as future predictors for modeling trajectories of ecosystem change in the department of Tolima. The relation between ecosystems and socioeconomic structure of the municipalities was considered through simple models, using two matrices of data that describe the 47 municipalities through 17 landscape variables and 24 socioeconomic variables. The first matrix represent the value of the variables in the territory, and the second matrix corresponds to the value of the socioeconomic variables in the municipalities. Landscape variability trends are explained using principal component analysis and hierarchical classification analysis. The interdependence between landscape typology and socioeconomic structure is expressed through linear regressions, being independent variables the socioeconomic descriptors and the dependent variables, the coordinates of these in the axes of the landscape PCA. Landscape zoning describes a gradient of intensification and diversification of land use and transformation (explaining a variance of 54.64%). First axis (30.89 %) describes a gradient from land-intensive landscapes to mosaics of crops in which productive activities are combined. It relates to the degree of human well-being and the degree of intensity with which they devote themselves to the sector (R2 = 0.83, P <0.001). The second axis (23.68 %) shows a landscape transformation gradient, from the highly transformed municipalities to those with natural landscapes predominating. This gradient relates with the types of production and the degree of connectivity to the main cities (R2 = 0.947, P <0.001). This work is the first approach to understand the interdependence between nature and society for the socio-ecological planning of this territory, combining contrasted landscapes typologies with social characteristics. We hypothesize that it has a link with the dynamics of armed conflict that Colombia experienced along last decades and we highlights the strong meaning of our results to understand future social-ecological transformation of this country after peace processes.

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Oral or poster: 
Oral presentation
Abstract order: 
9